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Charles Perrin
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Charles Perrin
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Charles has been operating as a freelance sports betting content writer for roughly 5 years. Prior to that, he was the overnight digital sports editor of the Daily Express where he presided over online coverage including breaking news and live blogs as well as boosting traffic levels. He boasts an in-depth knowledge of most sports and is adept at reviewing sportsbook brands in Canada. Away from sports betting content, Charles is a keen tennis player and he is a huge Tottenham Hotspur fan.
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Soccer Transfer Betting Guide: Tips & Predictions

Cover image for post How Soccer Betting Transfers Work
How Soccer Betting Transfers Work
Soccer Transfer Betting Guide: Tips & Predictions

The rumour mill goes into overdrive during the transfer window. In this in-depth guide, I will examine the key components of soccer transfer betting and share some useful tips.

Quick Summary (TL;DR)

Bet99 Review – Dennis
  1. There are two soccer transfer windows: during summer (June-August) and winter (January).

  2. You can usually locate transfer betting markets under Specials on various sportsbooks like bet365 and Betway (which are also your best options).

  3. Most popular transfer betting markets include next permanent club, player transfer betting, player not to move, and club to break transfer record.

  4. You can follow transfer rumours on various social media accounts and transfer gossip sites.

  5. Some of the most likely soccer betting transfers in 2024 include Jadon Sancho, Victor Osimhen, and Alphonso Davies.

  6. To place smart bets on transfers, pay close attention to the odds, approach rumours with caution, look into player behaviour, and check your sources.

Soccer is quite versatile for facilitating a variety of wagers and that applies to soccer transfer betting.

Learn more about the basics of soccer betting here!

Indeed, there is no shortage of bookmakers delivering transfer odds.

Betting on the transfer window is a crossover between props, which are the kind of betting markets more centred around players, as well as specials that are plugged at reputable sportsbooks, such as bet365.

Odds, which will usually be presented in decimals, will generally be quite competitive, and there will be a diversity of specials, such as ‘Next permanent club’ or ‘Which club a player will join’.

To learn more about reading and understanding soccer odds, visit LBC’s dedicated page.

good to know!

Some sportsbooks may be more rigorous in terms of updating the odds daily, while some may advertise lines just before the transfer window opens.

To give you an idea of the market’s worth, in the following table, we have presented the top 10 most expensive transfers in world football, illustrating which club each player signed for, and their respective fees.

PlayerFromToFee (in millions)
NeymarBarcelonaPSG$240.8m
Kylian MbappeMonacoPSG$195.2m
Philippe CoutinhoLiverpoolBarcelona$157.3m
Joao FelixBenficaAtletico Madrid$136.7m
Enzo FernandezBenficaChelsea$131.2m
Declan RiceWest Ham UnitedArsenal$131.2m
Antoine GriezmannAtleticoBarcelona$130.1m
Jack GrealishAston VillaManchester City$126.9m
Romelu LukakuInter MilanChelsea$124.7m
Cristiano RonaldoReal MadridJuventus$121.9m

If not approached properly, soccer transfer betting can be laden with danger and there are a few pointers outlined in this guide that will stand bettors in good stead moving forward.

There will be two chances throughout the year to indulge in soccer transfer betting which is the summer and winter.

  • Summer transfer window. Typically, this will run for three months from the middle of June to the end of August.
  • Clubs may like to splash more cash then.
  • Winter transfer window. Much shorter, this window is open for a month in January, and in the top leagues like the Serie A, loans can be more of a go-to option.

To expand on the above points, the summer transfer window, which begins in earnest during the off-season, sees more outlay, although this will depend on a player’s release clause.

Some players will have inserted into their contracts a clause that can be activated during a particular transfer window, and it will determine how much a club thinks a player is worth.

For example, Harry Kane swapped Tottenham for Bayern Munich last summer in a deal that could eventually reach up to $131 million.

Prior to his departure from Tottenham, Kane was entering the final year of his contract worth around $248,000 a week, but he was in no rush to agree to an extension.

There had been much wrangling between Bayern and Tottenham, with Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy trying to hold out for a bigger fee for his then-prized asset.

Anyway, there are several stages involved with signing a player, including agreeing on a fee and personal terms, as well as passing a medical before a player can be unveiled.

Normally, in the summer, negotiations may drag out longer if say a La Liga outfit such as Real Madrid bid for a Manchester United player, and their opening effort is well short of the mark.

Also, when there is no soccer during the summer, watching transfers unravel and wagering on transfers can fill in the quieter periods. After all, who doesn’t like a bit of gossip?

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Charles Perrin
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Charles Perrin
About Author
Charles has been operating as a freelance sports betting content writer for roughly 5 years. Prior to that, he was the overnight digital sports editor of the Daily Express where he presided over online coverage including breaking news and live blogs as well as boosting traffic levels. He boasts an in-depth knowledge of most sports and is adept at reviewing sportsbook brands in Canada. Away from sports betting content, Charles is a keen tennis player and he is a huge Tottenham Hotspur fan.

In the winter market, there is not as much time to conclude deals, but clubs will send out scouts to run the rule over targeted players during the season. Moreover, loans, particularly six-months loans can tide some clubs over until the end of the season if they are short of bodies in certain areas, such as defence or midfield.

However, I think the main problem with the winter market is some clubs use the window as a quick short-term fix, and it can be difficult to bed in new signings halfway in the season.

Soccer transfer betting may be new for some, but below we have addressed how this can be achieved through a simple step-by-step process for bet365:

  1. Visit sportsbook. Go to the main sportsbook lobby and complete the registration form after clicking the yellow “Join” button in the top right-hand corner.
  2. Deposit funds. After heading to the cashier, pick a banking option and make an initial deposit before confirming payment.
  3. Pull up the transfer options. The Specials will have a list of all the potential transfers for a particular window. Click on a player to see the odds assigned to them.
  4. Place a bet. Once a selection has been established, pick a market and confirm the stake size using bet365’s intuitive betting slip.

The odds will generally fluctuate throughout any given window, so my best advice is to keep track of all the latest news and developments coming out from a club before jumping on a line.

Some sportsbooks may cut their prices significantly if there is strong talk that a player could leave a club, and this may invite a flurry of bets.

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Charles Perrin
Expert Quote
Charles Perrin
About Author
Charles has been operating as a freelance sports betting content writer for roughly 5 years. Prior to that, he was the overnight digital sports editor of the Daily Express where he presided over online coverage including breaking news and live blogs as well as boosting traffic levels. He boasts an in-depth knowledge of most sports and is adept at reviewing sportsbook brands in Canada. Away from sports betting content, Charles is a keen tennis player and he is a huge Tottenham Hotspur fan.

If the prices advertised are very short for a player, I would recommend steering clear as it would seem likely that a player could be signing imminently for a new club.

Soccer transfer betting is more sophisticated than betting on pre-match markets, and I think you need to be more switched on when it comes to tracking the odds.

From research carried out, there are a few regulated sportsbooks that will enable soccer transfer betting.

However, the best ones encountered were bet365 and Betway.

Aside from having a comprehensive range of specials advertised, both provided competitive odds.

must know!

Usually, they are quick off the mark to compile prices, and they will be constantly updated in real time for bettors to hop on board.

While soccer transfer betting has become more popular, I would suggest comparing the relative strengths of sportsbooks offering transfer specials before signing up.

Look at whether they have certain features, such as if cash out is available, so wagers can be retrieved early.

Whichever site a bettor chooses to sign up for soccer transfer betting, they need a decent range of markets, as the scope is huge with these prop-style bets.

Below is a list that should prove useful as to where to find the juiciest transfer rumours.

This has been split into league social media accounts, sites, and reputable journalists to follow:

Social Media Accounts

  • Premier League X account – @premierleague
  • Serie A X account – @SerieA_EN
  • La Liga X account – @LaLigaEN
  • Bundesliga account – @Bundesliga_EN
  • Ligue 1 account – @Lige1_ENG

Renowned Transfer Gossip Sites

  • Sky Sports
  • BBC Sport
  • ESPN
  • The Athletic

Journalists to Follow on X

  • David Ornstein – @davidornstein
  • Gabriele Marcotti – @Marcotti
  • Fabrizio Romano – @FabrizioRomano
  • Guillem Balague – @GuillemBalague
  • Gianluca Di Marzio – @DiMarzio

Some transfer sagas could run well into 2024, and I have supplied a table which looks at the key players who could move in the winter or summer transfer window.

PlayerCurrent ClubClub/s Linked To
Jadon SanchoManchester UnitedAl-Ettifaq, Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund
Victor OsimhenNapoliChelsea and Liverpool
Alphonso DaviesBayern MunichChelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City
Nico WilliamsAthletic BilbaoBarcelona and Real Madrid
Eric DierTottenhamCeltic, Crystal Palace, and Monaco

Following a detailed overview of soccer transfer betting, it’s time to share a few useful tips that will serve bettors well.

Pay Close Attention to the Odds

Sportsbooks don’t want to lose money or be embarrassed by any bettors that are supposedly in the know.

Some may well be more conservative with their odds, while others may respond to a news leak by slashing prices. If there is a big fluctuation in odds, it could mean a move is on the way.

I think it is best to weigh up the odds and avoid being tempted to pile in as soon as the sportsbook decides to take action.

Approach the Rumor Mill with Caution

It can be quite easy to get caught up in the hype or the transfer carousel which always seems to be spinning.

Of course, there is always idle gossip floating about on the internet, but nothing may have been verified.

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Charles Perrin
Expert Quote
Charles Perrin
About Author
Charles has been operating as a freelance sports betting content writer for roughly 5 years. Prior to that, he was the overnight digital sports editor of the Daily Express where he presided over online coverage including breaking news and live blogs as well as boosting traffic levels. He boasts an in-depth knowledge of most sports and is adept at reviewing sportsbook brands in Canada. Away from sports betting content, Charles is a keen tennis player and he is a huge Tottenham Hotspur fan.

As such, I recommend being cautious about any social media rumours and judging each story on its own merit. Doing this will stop people from making wasted bets.

Assess Patterns in Player Behaviour

There may be a few telltale signs of whether a player is happy at a club or not.

For example, if a player goes missing from training for some time, this would suggest they are clamouring for a move.

Or, if a player has been trying to swerve questions on their future or has given a statement, then this could provide further clues.

Sometimes, agents can be quite candid about their client, and their future, but they are arguably just after the best deal.

Anyway, while it is difficult to ascertain the ins and outs of what goes on in the dressing room, a player’s body language can give the game away.

Check Your Sources

Linked to the above point about treating the rumour mill with caution, you should assemble a list of trusted sources.

Whether it is mainstream news outlets or journalists, it is important to know where the best place is to source information.

With journalists, for example, some will have reliable club contacts, and they will post frequently on X, which in turn, could influence selections for betting on transfers.

Sources:

Most expensive transfers in world football

Harry Kane switch to Bayern Munich

Harry Kane Tottenham contract

Arsenal’s club-record deal for Mesut Ozil

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