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27 days ago
How to Get Value From Serie A Betting
Betting on Serie A: Specifics & Tips
Widely considered one of Europe’s five “Big Leagues”, Serie A is Italy’s top-flight division, drawing plenty of interest.
In this guide, I will shed light on Serie A betting, discussing popular markets, as well as ones to avoid.
I will also share some expert tips to help with wagering approaches.
To read about the intricacies of soccer betting in general, make sure to visit LBC’s comprehensive guide.
What Makes Serie A Specific
Serie A has undergone major changes over the 20 years or so, and it looks vastly different from the glossy product advertised in the 1990s.
But one thing that has remained constant is that Serie A is renowned for being extremely competitive.
Arguably, this has provided more value for bettors.
Previously, Juventus were an unstoppable force, and they had a vice-like grip on the Serie A title in the 2010s, but now more teams have stepped out of the shadows and come to the fore.
The resurgence of Inter, for example, has been evident in recent times, and Napoli hoisted the title for just the third time in its history in the 2022/23 campaign.
Yes, the swapping of Italy’s domestic title over the past three seasons has challenged the popular notion that the league is a one-horse race.
However, Serie A has struggled to shake off the tag of being a defensive league.
Teams are generally more tactically astute and won’t throw caution to the wind.
A good example of this is that at the time of writing, current leaders Inter have averaged 9.6 shots per game, but managed 14.6 tackles per game.
If you rewind 10 years, Serie A was down on other major European leagues, averaging 2.65 goals per game whereas the La Liga (2.86) and Bundesliga (2.88) were high-scoring.
Serie A, I think, appreciates tackling as an art form, whereas, in other leagues, not enough attention is paid to tracking back or cutting off balls in more prominent attacking positions.
That aside, Serie A has also been plagued by scandals.
I have dedicated a section to run through these and the impact they have had.
Match Fixing Scandal (2006)
Scandals have become synonymous with Serie A, and Calciopoli, as it was known, rocked the league in 2006.
This debacle revolved around key figures in Italian football intimidating referees before matches and trying to influence decisions.
Juve general manager Luciano Moggi was implicated, and even though he denied any wrongdoing, he was handed a life ban from Italian football.
The punishments enforced on the disgraced clubs were more severe, ranging from Juventus being relegated and docked a total of 9 points to Fiorentina having 15 points docked.
I think it’s fair to assert that Serie A’s reputation has never quite recovered from the match fixing scandal.
Serie A Betting Scandal (2023)
The latest scandal to hit Italy’s top flight is a Serie A betting scandal that came to light towards the end of 2023.
Turin prosecutors had questioned Juventus midfielder Nicolo Fagioli and Nicolo Zaniolo for allegedly betting online on unauthorized websites.
More than a dozen players were thought to have been implicated, including Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali, who signed last summer for $72.5m from AC Milan.
A 10-month ban was subsequently handed to Tonali, meaning he won’t be eligible to play for Newcastle until August 2024.
While it’s important to keep in mind that Serie A is more prone to scandals than any of the other Big Five leagues, it’s also one that can provide certain value to bettors, if you choose the right betting markets to wager on.
Best Betting Markets to Choose for Serie A
It’s now time to dig deeper into the Serie A betting markets, and I have assessed some of the most popular lines below.
Before you dive into it, be sure you understand how to read soccer odds.
Tie No Bet
Usually, Serie A has a handful of teams that will dominate the standings, but usually, there isn’t much difference in the quality of the sides near the top.
Unlike the 3-way moneyline where there are three possible results, the tie no bet line is exactly as it sounds:
It will allow bettors to back a team to win, but in the event of a draw, the original stake will be returned.
In some cases, the tie no bet scenario gives players more of a safety net, especially if they are unconvinced the underdog will win.
To put this into context, let’s refer to the upcoming Serie A clash between Roma and Fiorentina where the tie no bet line comes into play.
At the time of writing, going into this game, only a single point separated the two teams in the standings, with Roma in fourth and Fiorentina in sixth place.
Fiorentina are trading at a slightly longer price of 2.47 for this line, so a $20 wager will turn into a $29.40 win and a total payout of $49.40 if La Viola triumphs.
But if Fiorentina were to tie, then this would result in a push and the bettor retrieving his original wager, so nothing is lost.
To reinforce this point, let’s look at another example. This time, I have referred to the same market for Lazio vs Inter Milan supplied by Sports Interaction.
Here, the tie no bet prices Lazio, who at the time are ninth in the Serie A table, at 3.00.
A $10 wager here would return a win of $20 and a total payout of $30.
But if I’m to compare this to the 3-way moneyline, then the odds on a Lazio victory are longer at 4.33, so a $10 wager would provide a win of $33.30 and a total payout of $43.30.
Generally, the tie no bet will be shorter in odds to account for the draw insurance that an outright win won’t have.
While it might seem a safer bet, I think it is a great market to tap into, especially for those who haven’t made any cast-iron judgments before a game.
I also believe bettors can manage their bankroll better, and it gives a more intriguing dimension to match result markets.
With the increasing number of superstars that have entered Italy’s top-flight, the anytime goalscorer market is also appealing for Serie A betting.
The premise of this prop wager is quite simple. Bettors have to choose which player will score at any point across the 90 minutes.
Although the odds are shorter than the first goalscorer market, there can be value found with this particular line which I will discuss in more detail later.
Anyway, Atalanta will be hosting AC Milan soon in a Serie A showdown, and there will be several potential scorers on an operator’s list.
I have used the anytime scorer line supplied by Bet99, and I have highlighted Olivier Giroud’s odds.
At the time of writing, Giroud has netted seven times for Milan, with only Inter’s Lautaro Martinez ahead of them with 13 strikes.
So, for those who placed a $25 wager with odds of 3.30 for Giroud anytime, this would return a win of $57.50 and a total payout of $82.50.
Unlike the first goalscorer market, there is more scope with the anytime scorer section for Giroud to fulfill it.
Aside from assessing Giroud’s current form, I would also take a look at his scoring record against Atalanta, as this could provide further clues as to whether he will hit the target.
For those wishing to take a longer-term approach with their Serie A betting, I would like to point bettors in the direction of futures.
These will usually be posted a few months in advance of the new season, although as the campaign gets underway, these will be constantly updated.
With futures, if a bettor places a wager on a team with a long price, then it is a case of holding their nerve to see if this prediction comes off.
Operators such as bet365 are well versed in futures, as shown by the odds published for who will be crowned Serie A champions.
As can be seen here, Inter are the short-priced favourites at 1.40, even though it is still relatively early days.
However, placing a $30 wager using the above odds would not provide much value. To be more precise, a bettor would collect a win of $12.00.
At the time of writing, Inter had only lost once, but they were scoring goals for fun, netting 33 times in 14 outings.
Given their pedigree in recent seasons, Inter have proved to be strong frontrunners, but for me, backing the Nerazzurri seems to be an obvious choice.
Instead, at this point of the season, I would look at other candidates that are in and around the title race, such as Milan.
A $30 wager with their current odds of 10.00 would scoop bettors a win of $270.00 and a total payout of $300.00.
Here, I would ring the key games, especially during the run-in to the end of the season, and identify where teams are most likely to pick up or drop points.
Alternatively, other sites will have a greater range of futures posted, such as Top 4 or Top Goalscorer markets.
This is the case with Sports Interaction.
The Top Goalscorer market is always intriguing, and invariably, this line can go right down to the wire.
I have used Sports Interaction as an example to illustrate the latest odds.
Martinez, who is the top scorer with 13 goals to his name at the moment, has blazed a trail this term. Nevertheless, he is carrying very short odds of 1.15.
This is hardly likely to win favour from a bettor as a $50 wager at this price will only return a small win of $7.50, with an overall payout of $57.50.
Here, I think it is better to opt for a player with longer odds, especially as things can impact a player.
I am referring more specifically to injuries. If Martinez were to pull up with a hamstring problem, or worse still, required surgery, it could effectively end his season.
Also, it is worth pointing out that some players can slip and slide out of the starting XI, and at various points, strikers can go through lean spells in front of goal.
Betting Markets to Avoid for Serie A
While some Serie A betting markets will carry a certain amount of appeal, there are a few that should be avoided.
Given what I said about Serie A being a highly defensive league, plumping on the over/under goals section would be counter-productive.
Goals are scored in Serie A, but sometimes it can be extremely difficult for certain teams to break down their opponents, especially if one side is defending very deep.
If you were to look back on Matchday 12 for the 2023/24 campaign, 22 goals were scored across 10 games.
At an average of just over two per match, this seems like quite a small return.
In an upcoming game, Empoli will be hosting Lecce, but both sides have struggled in Serie A.
With some operators, they may only offer the total over/under 2.5 goals line, and this is depicted by Bet99.
Interestingly, there is little disparity between the over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals of the line; however, the odds are quite short.
Given the shortcomings of both sides and with Empoli trying to stay afloat at the end of the season, this line isn’t worth exploring.
Going for the under 2.5 line, for example, and backing that with a $20 wager would see a win of $15 and an overall payout of $35.40.
Although past league meetings between the pair would suggest that it hasn’t been a high-scoring fixture, going for the under 2.5 line provides little value.
This line requires being able to spot patterns in games.
But with a league like Serie A that can be accustomed to matches with few goals, I would try something else instead.
A same-game parlay requires betting on multiple outcomes from a single contest.
With Serie A betting, this can be problematic as there are no certainties, and bettors need all legs of their wager to come through to be declared a winner.
For example, Genoa will be taking on Juventus at home in a forthcoming Serie A game.
At Betano, the Same Game Parlay button can be toggled to present various markets.
On paper, it looks like a complete mismatch given that Juventus are currently involved in a title race while Genoa are in the bottom half of the table.
However, as I mentioned, all legs of the bet need to be successful to get some kind of return.
Juventus, who have lost a few times away at Genoa over the past few seasons, could end up having a bad day at the office.
Same-game parlays are generally more suited to experienced bettors or those who have a bigger budget to cushion losses.
I would say that those who are new to Serie A betting should consider lines that are simple to grasp to keep their bankroll ticking over.
Although this team prop can be inviting, it can be super hard to predict, and as such, it seems to offer little value.
If I revisit the earlier example of Roma vs Fiorentina, these are two teams that like to press and counterattack.
The latest season stats suggest that Roma and Fiorentina rank fifth and sixth respectively for corners won this campaign.
However, there have been games between the top sides where there have been few chances created, let alone set-pieces taken.
Anyway, bet365 has supplied the over/under 9.5 corner line for this game.
The odds displayed are very short for both the over and under part of this line.
Although both sides have racked up the corners this season, there is no guarantee that this match will see loads of corners awarded.
A $10 wager for there to be over 9.5 corners will only generate a win of $9 with odds of 1.9. With the original wager factored, the payout will be $19.
I think, like any over/under market, this is quite a precise section, and there is little room for error if things go wrong.
Serie A has plenty of fascinating team props, but this one isn’t worth exploring further.
Is It Easy to Find Value Bets in Serie A?
Although Serie A betting has the potential to be fun, it isn’t as popular as wagering on the EPL.
From research undertaken, I found at sites, such as Betano, on average there are 600 pre-match markets advertised per EPL game, while this drops to around 400 for Serie A.
I think it’s fair to say that the EPL has more market depth compared to Serie A.
That’s mainly down to the fact the EPL contains more drama and is arguably more entertaining.
If anything, odds are updated more frequently for the EPL as that is what drives a lot of interest in terms of betting volume.
That aside, players can still land value wagers when enjoying Serie A betting.
I think comparing the Serie A betting odds between operators will inevitably help, especially if you want to gain a slight edge.
Of course, for some markets, the prices may be very similar, but if there is a big discrepancy, then I would suggest jumping on board with the site that posts more attractive odds.
In terms of the Serie A betting markets that carry more value, the anytime scorer market ticks many boxes.
In particular, this could be the case for defenders, who like to come up for corners and are a powerful aerial presence.
To learn more about soccer betting markets in general, check out LBC’s dedicated guide.
For example, Inter will be hosting Udinese soon, and this could be a game where the home side may profit from corners, and Francesco Acerbi, for example, could be a threat.
I have underlined the anytime scorer odds for Acerbi (courtesy of Sports Interaction).
Acerbi is at an inviting 10.00 to score anytime. A $10 wager would supply a win of $90 and an overall payout of $100.
Although wagering on strikers to score anytime is popular, defenders can also be effective at both ends of the pitch.
I, therefore, think it is good to deviate away from the norm sometimes, and in Serie A, like any other league, there is value in backing a defender with longer odds to net.
Expert Tips for Serie A Betting
Having provided a detailed overview of Serie A betting, it’s time to wrap things up and share some of my expert tips, which will bode well for players moving forward.
Don’t be over-ambitious.
I think it is best to start with more basic Serie A betting lines first before attempting more tricky markets.
For example, Over/Under markets and even same-game parlays aren’t a good option for a league as defensive as Serie A.
Have a budget in mind.
Before indulging in Serie A betting, players should have an idea of how much they are willing to lose without exceeding financial expectations.
That’s especially true since the smart betting options are limited with a league like this, and they tend to not offer too high odds.
Therefore, you’d need to invest more for a good payout, and you’re not always going to come out of it victorious.
Watch live games.
To help with Serie A betting, I would recommend watching as many games as possible to figure out team styles and spot patterns.
Some teams are less defensive than others, and pinpointing those could help you delve into some more advanced betting markets such as over/under.
Fade the public.
Rather than following the crowd, I think it is better to rely on instinct. The public may be easily led and fail to spot something crucial.
Read up on the latest Serie A team news at the official Serie A site, as this can impact picks ahead of any given matchday. I don’t like nasty surprises!
Serie A: Interesting Stats
- Arguably, its defensive nature has been a turn-off, with figures showing its annual TV deal is worth around $973.5 million which is dwarfed by the Premier League ($1.89 billion).
- I also located figures showing Serie A generated $2.5 bn in media rights revenue across the 2021/22 campaign, whereas the Premier League more than doubled this total ($6.3 bn).
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